A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
